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All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) released its half‑yearly review of the gold and silver market for 2026, noting that the first six months of the year were marked by historic peaks in bullion prices, followed by corrections that reshaped consumer sentiment and industry outlook. The Council emphasized that taxation changes, customs duty hikes, and global geopolitical tensions have been the defining factors of the year so far, while evolving consumer preferences and policy reforms will play a crucial role in the months ahead. Gold prices peaked at ₹1,70,480 per 10 grams in January 2026, before correcting to around ₹1,42,800 per 10 grams by late June 2026. Silver too witnessed a dramatic surge, crossing ₹4,02,490 per kilogram in January 2026 — its first time above the ₹4 lakh mark — before easing to the ₹ 2,25,940 per kilogram range by late June 2026. These fluctuations created both opportunities and challenges: while investors flocked to gold as a safe-haven, jewellery demand softened due to affordability pressures. The Council observed that customers are increasingly turning toward lightweight jewellery designs, reflecting both budgetary considerations and changing fashion sensibilities. Policy developments added further complexity to the market. The increase in customs duty announced in May 2026 pushed domestic prices higher and weighed on retail demand. GST burden and compliance requirements continued to challenge margins, prompting calls for rationalization. At the same time, GJC reiterated its advocacy for reforms in the Gold Monetisation Scheme, which it believes can unlock the value of idle household gold, reduce import dependency, and strengthen domestic supply chains. Global factors have also played a decisive role. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and broader geopolitical instability have heightened volatility, while the depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar added pressure on domestic prices. Inflationary trends and central bank diversification into gold reserves further underlined the safe‑haven appeal of the metal, even as corrections set in after the initial peaks. Adding to this perspective, Rajesh Rokde, Chairman of GJC, commented: "The correction in bullion prices during late June reflects a natural adjustment after extraordinary highs. Gold futures settled around ₹1,42,800 per 10 grams, while silver eased to the ₹2,25,990 per kg range after crossing ₹4,00,000 earlier this year. These shifts are driven by profit‑taking, a stronger US dollar index, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates globally. Global sentiment has also shifted as safe‑haven demand eased after recent geopolitical panic cooled. While futures saw a meaningful drop, retail prices have remained elevated, with 24K gold continuing to trade around ₹14,250–₹14,400 per gram through late June this year. This shows the market is adjusting rather than collapsing. Looking ahead, the upcoming festive season and the peak wedding calendar in the second half of the year are expected to provide strong support to jewellery demand, particularly in lightweight categories. These cultural drivers, combined with India’s deep emotional connect with gold, will ensure that despite volatility, the market remains resilient." Avinash Gupta, Vice Chairman of GJC, added: "Gold remains an integral part of Indian households, but affordability pressures are real. The next six months will depend heavily on geopolitical stability and government policy, particularly in the context of customs duty and taxation. Excessive duties risk encouraging unofficial channels, which hurts consumers and weakens the trade. We urge policymakers to balance revenue needs with industry sustainability, ensuring that reforms strengthen rather than strain the sector. At the same time, the Gold Monetisation Scheme offers a long‑term solution by mobilising idle household gold, reducing import dependency, and reinforcing India’s economic resilience. Consumers are adapting with lightweight jewellery designs, while investors continue to view gold as a safe-haven. The industry stands ready to collaborate with the government so that national interest, consumer welfare, and market stability move forward together." Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, GJC expects bullion prices to remain volatile, with possible consolidation after recent corrections. Jewellery demand is expected to remain subdued, though the festive season could revive sales, particularly in lightweight categories. The industry awaits clarity on reforms to the Gold Monetisation Scheme and potential tax adjustments, while geopolitical risks remain a key factor that could trigger renewed safe-haven demand.

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